Article Updated: 11/04/2021
Will the 4 year Bitcoin cycle repeat?
This is the question I have been thinking about since this first post and chart were put here.
I also decided to do a little more than charts on this post and will update it as Bitcoin progresses in its journey.
Q2 2019 Snapshot
First thought that crosses my mind is that I would say the majority of people that trade Bitcoin, do not even think about cycles.
I know when I first started I did not. I think after your first bear market experience, you understand the dangers of being overly euphoric and start to study more.
Let’s Play With Some Numbers Regarding Time…
**TLDR, I will put a table below this for quick reference**
We will begin by looking at the beginning of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin was brought into existence on 1/3/2009. Started off at penny’s and by the end of the first cycle landed at $1163.00… and we will look at this later in more detail.
Timing wise the genesis of Bitcoin to first cycle peak was 1793 days (4 years, 10 months, 28 days or 58 months, 28 days)
If you put the first bear market in (LOW 1/14/15) it is 2203 days (6 years, 12 days or 72 months, 12 days)
The next (2nd) major peak came in on 12/17/2017.
With the (1st) bear market ending on 1/14/15 and the peak hitting 12/17/2017, that gives us 1069 days (2 years, 11 months, 4 days or 35 months, 4 days)
The following (2nd) bear market corrected until 12/15/18, so the (2nd) full cycle was 1432 (3 years, 11 months, 2 days or 47 months, 2 days)
Interestingly the cycle halved.
So here we are now… Getting into the territory where the craziness kicks off and looking to pin the ATH date for this (3rd) cycle.
This is where my theories kick in, but if I spaced the cycles out the same way they hit on the 2nd cycle, it would look like this screenshot below.
Q4 2021 Snapshot
So far, here is what we are looking at…
***I don’t entirely subscribe to Elliott Waves, but I do see the structure in many assets. I do believe Bitcoin makes similar moves.***
***Please note this is best viewed from a desktop.***
| Cycle | LH Dates | Low To High Timeframe |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1/3/2009 to 11/30/2013 | 1793 days 58 months, 28 days 4 years, 10 months, 28 days |
| 2 | 1/14/2015 to 12/17/2017 | 1069 days 35 months, 4 days 2 years, 11 months, 4 days |
| 3 | 12/15/2018 to | |
| 4 | ||
| 5 |
Table 1 Observations
| Cycle | High – Low Dates | High – Low Timeframe |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11/30/2013 to 1/14/2015 | 411 days |
| 2 | 12/17/2017 to 12/15/2018 | 364 days |
| 3 | ||
| 4 | ||
| 5 |
Table 2 Observations
Elliott Wave 3 is the most violent upwards so the compressed time is not overly shocking.
This is where it could get tricky with Wave 5. If there is too much euphoria, we could see an extended 5th. Which could extend time. There are also some other factors that are having me look at March 2022.
| Cycle | Low – Low Dates | Low – Low Timeframe |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1/3/2009 to 1/14/2015 | 2203 days 72 months, 12 days 6 years, 12 days |
| 2 | 1/14/2015 to 12/15/2018 | 1432 days 47 months, 2 days 3 years, 11 months, 2 days |
| 3 | 12/15/2018 to | |
| 4 | ||
| 5 |
Table 3 Observations
Between cycle 1 and cycle 2 the timing almost halved.
This is where the wavelengths are measured from. Valley to Valley.
Let’s Play With Some Numbers Regarding Price…
Looking at past price action has me curious and I feel the need to look closer at this.
So Bitcoin was brought into existence 1/3/2009, started off at penny’s and by the end of the first cycle landed at $1163.00…
That in itself is a massive growth for the first cycle.
What did we get the next cycle?